SHFE tin prices were in the doldrums during the night session, with downstream and end-user enterprises showing low enthusiasm for restocking. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on Oct 23, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and continued to fluctuate rangebound, closing at 280,530 yuan/mt, down 0.15% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Tesla (TSLA.O) reported lower-than-expected Q3 profit, even as its EV sales hit a record high, indicating the company is facing pressure from changing US policies and rising costs. The company's financial report showed adjusted earnings per share of 50¢ for the third quarter, while analysts on average expected 54¢. However, quarterly revenue reached $28.1 billion, exceeding market expectations. The company reiterated its statement from the previous quarter that it is difficult to gauge how changing global trade and fiscal policies will affect its business and operations. Tesla believes its performance depends on the broader macro environment and the pace at which it accelerates autonomous driving efforts and increases production of key products. Analysts expect Tesla's auto deliveries to decline for the second consecutive year. Earlier this month, Tesla reported record Q3 sales as consumers rushed to buy EVs before the expiration of the US tax credit policy on September 30, providing a temporary boost to its core auto business. (2) Jingduan Technology announced that the company plans to optimize the allocation of resources for the NEV electric drive transmission component industrialisation project. Based on customer market demand forecasts, Jingduan Technology intends to further expand the capacity scale of Pacific Jingduan Technology Co., Ltd. Considering various factors and the working capital required for the commissioning of new capacity, Jingduan Technology plans to increase its investment in the Thai company by 250 million yuan, of which 1% will be directly invested by Jingduan Technology and 99% will be invested in the Thai company by its wholly-owned subsidiary, PPF INDUSTRIAL PTE. LTD. The additional investment in the Thai company aims to further expand its capacity scale, increase the supply capacity for NEV and engineering machinery gear shaft projects, and facilitate the optimal allocation of resources for the NEV electric drive transmission component industrialisation project. (3) Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that from October 1 to 19, retail auto sales in the national passenger car market reached 1.128 million units, down 6% YoY compared to the same period last October but up 7% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 18.136 million units, up 8% YoY. From October 1 to 19, wholesale auto sales by passenger car producers nationwide reached 1.155 million units, down 5% YoY compared to the same period last October and flat MoM. Cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of the year reached 22.002 million units, up 12% YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters maintained maintenance shutdowns in October (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: Orders decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provided limited boost: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to fill the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Spot trades were relatively sluggish yesterday. Tin prices overall showed strong performance, fluctuating around 281,000 yuan/mt. Most downstream and end-user enterprises maintained a wait-and-see stance, conducting only minimal just-in-time procurement, with low enthusiasm for restocking.

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